The Emotional Substrates of Support for Authoritarian Populists

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Principal investigators:

Carly Wayne

Washington University in St. Louis

Email: carlywayne@wustl.edu

Homepage: http://www.carlywayne.com/

Nicholas A. Valentino

University of Michigan

Email: nvalenti@umich.edu

Homepage: https://lsa.umich.edu/polisci/people/faculty/nvalenti.html

Marzia Oceno

Vanderbilt University

Email: marzia.oceno@vanderbilt.edu

Homepage: https://www.marziaoceno.com/


Sample size: 716

Field period: 05/03/2016-07/01/2016

Abstract
We test several hypotheses related to the emotional substrates of support for candidates who espouse authoritarian populist rhetoric such as Donald Trump. Pundits and scholars have suggested support for Trump is high among those with negative views of immigrants, minorities and women because his rhetoric triggers anxiety about changing national demographics or economic threats. We predict the opposite: Support for Trump would decline precipitously among ethnocentrists and sexists if they actually experienced fear. Anger, on the other hand, is predicted to drive up support for Trump among these exact same citizens. Using a careful emotion induction experiment we find support for our core hypotheses: Fear reduces support for Trump among those highest in sexism and ethnocentrism, while anger tends to push these voters into his camp. We think a replication of this study on a national sample could make a significant contribution to the debate about the rise of authoritarian populism in the U.S. and in Europe.
Hypotheses
First, our theory predicts that anger should boost the impact of partisanship on support for presidential candidates in the current race (especially Trump), while fear should undermine the power of parties to structure the vote. Second, we expect that anger should most powerfully boost support for Trump among sexists and ethnocentrists, while fear should reduce his support among these same respondents. Third, we predict that anger should be mobilizing among sexists and ethnocentrists, while fear should demobilize.
Experimental Manipulations

Respondents were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 conditions, each inducing a distinct emotional state – anger, fear, disgust and relaxation (the control condition). The emotion induction task we used is a well-established procedure used to trigger incidental affect – emotion unrelated to the specific subject of interest (Banks & Valentino 2012; Banks 2014). Participants in each condition viewed an image of a woman’s face expressing a specific emotion, drawn from Ekman’s pretested archive of universal emotions (Ekman & Friesen 1976). Upon viewing the picture, respondents were prompted to recall life experiences that led them to feel a given emotion strongly, and to describe such events. Respondent in the control condition did not view a picture, and were prompted to report about “things that make you feel relaxed.” Note that, by design, this task is semantically unrelated to politics. This ensures that any effects can be attributed solely to a specific emotion, rather than a rationalization of pre-existing evaluations of the candidates.

anger/fear induction:
Here is a picture of someone who is ANGRY/AFRAID. We would like you describe in general things that make you feel like the person in the picture. It is okay if you don't remember all the details, just be specific about what exactly it is that makes you ANGRY/AFRAID and what it feels like to be ANGRY/AFRAID. Please describe the events that make you feel the most ANGRY/AFRAID these experiences could have occurred in the past or will happen in the future. If you can, write your description so that someone reading it might even feel ANGRY/AFRAID. Take A FEW MINUTES to write out your answer. Just start typing whenever you are ready and a text box will appear. When you finish typing, please use the mouse to click on [Save] and then press [Enter] on your keyboard.

Control:
Now we would like you to describe in general things that make you feel RELAXED. It is okay if you don't remember all the details, just be specific about what exactly it is that makes you RELAXED and what it feels like to be RELAXED. Please describe the events that make you feel the most RELAXED, these experiences could have occurred in the past or will happen in the future. If you can, write your description so that someone reading it might even feel RELAXED. Take A FEW MINUTES to write out your answer. Just start typing whenever you are ready and a text box will appear. When you finish typing, please use the mouse to click on [Save] and then press [Enter] on your keyboard.

Outcomes
Candidate evaluation and electoral participation
Summary of Results
Among respondents who were primed to feel afraid, the impact of sexism on support for Trump was smaller—compared to respondents primed to feel angry or relaxed. In contrast, among respondents primed to feel angry, the impact of sexism was slightly larger than those primed to feel relaxed. We also found anger, but not fear, boosted intentions to participate in the election between Trump and Clinton.
References
Valentino, Nicholas A., Carly Wayne and Marzia Oceno. 2018. "Mobilizing Sexism: The Interaction of Emotion and Gender Attitudes in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election." Public Opinion Quarterly 82: 213-235.