Which Economy? Class and Partisan Biases in the Acquisition of Economic Information

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Principal investigator:

Ian Anson

University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Email: iganson@umbc.edu

Homepage: http://www.iananson.com/


Sample size: 2030

Field period: 10/30/2015-02/10/2016

Abstract
Citizens’ appraisals of the American economy can substantially deviate from objective economic reality. In addition to partisan biases, research has also shown that Americans seem to rely disproportionately on information about the economic performance of the very wealthy to form economic judgments. In this study, I examine the origins of this phenomenon by studying how and why partisans choose to acquire information about basic economic indicators. Survey experiments demonstrate that an economically-diverse subset of citizens seeks out stock market news over information about other indicators, such as unemployment and wage growth. Due to pre-treatment in media, however, exposure to stock market information does not influence respondents' overall economic judgments to the same degree as wage growth and unemployment data.
Hypotheses

1. Exposure to positive stock market information is not expected to influence respondents' overall economic positivity due to pre-treatment effects

2. Exposure to positive wage growth information is expected to increase respondents' overall economic positivity

3. Exposure to positive unemployment information is expected to increase respondents' overall economic positivity

Experimental Manipulations

Respondents were exposed to one of three experimental manipulations, or were exposed to a control condition with no economic information.

T1. Stocks were up last week, lending further evidence that the markets are headed for even stronger gains. The Dow Jones rallied substantially in the past quarter, as investors displayed a growing appetite for risk and a striking lack of concern about any reversal of fortune. “Today’s report continues to signal a solid investing environment that is likely to maintain its bullishness,” said Omair Sharif, senior economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

T2. Wage growth strengthened last month, bolstering the view that American incomes will continue to gain steadily across a number of sectors. The median salary among workers in manufacturing increased 3% in the past quarter, and the rate was even higher among those working in service industries, the Labor Department said on Thursday. “Today’s report continues to signal solid middle-class wage growth that is accompanied by remarkably low volatility,” said Omair Sharif, senior economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

T3. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, and the trend continued to support views that the labor market is strengthening. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000 for the past week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. “Today’s report continues to signal a solid labor market that is experiencing a very low pace of layoffs,” said Omair Sharif, senior economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

Control. Verizon once again has bragging rights in the wireless industry. The carrier took top honors in a new ranking of nationwide network performance by market research firm RootMetrics. Verizon ranked number one for reliability, speed, call and data performance, with AT&T a close second in all those categories. Those two firms held a significant advantage over third-ranked T-Mobile and fourth-ranked Sprint. RootMetrics conducted the study through the use of national surveys.

Outcomes
Standard five-point economic retrospection measure, asking respondents whether the economy in recent times is "much better," "better," "about the same," "worse," or "much worse"
Summary of Results
Exposure to positive information about the stock market had no effect on economic retrospections (p > 0.1). Exposure to positive information about unemployment increased average retrospections by around 0.16 points (p <0.01). Exposure to positive information about wage growth increased average retrospections by around 0.18 points (p < 0.05).